• Best Picture: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Milk,” “The Reader,” “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Milk has a strong chance, as I’ve heard it’s good and it falls under the category of an “Important Work”.  Comparatively, Slumdog Millionaire has enormous buzz, enormous heart, enormous attention.

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire, unless residual frustration from the loss of Prop 8 (Thanks, Conservative California People) rolls over and pulls Milk to win.

• Adapted Screenplay: Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt”; Peter Morgan, “Frost/Nixon”; David Hare, “The Reader”; Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Tricky.  The screenplay category is where the “Important Works” have a chance to come forward and take the lead, and from a story perspective, all of these scripts are Important.  Slumdog has a good chance, on the sheer strength of the work, as does Shanley’s Doubt.  Having not seen any of the films yet, I’m taking a shot in the dark and saying Benjamin Button.

Prediction: Benjamin Button

• Original Screenplay: Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”; Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”; Martin McDonagh, “In Bruges”; Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”; Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter, “WALL-E.”

I saw Happy Go Lucky, and I’ll be honest, I didn’t get it.  It had a lot of heart, a lot of sincerity, but I just didn’t quite connect with it.  I also saw WALL-E, and I expect it to completely sweep the awards.

Prediction: WALL-E

• Actor: Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”; Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”; Sean Penn, “Milk”; Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler.”

To quote Jeremy Piven in Entourage: “This town loves a comeback!”

Prediction: Mickey Rourke (“The Wrestler”), unless Sean Penn sweeps in from behind, again, on the strength of a good story and an Important Work in “Milk”.

• Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”; Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”; Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”; Meryl Streep, “Doubt”; Kate Winslet, “The Reader.”

So far I’ve only seen Jolie in “Changeling”, and as good as she is, I wasn’t very impressed overall.  I’m betting on the obvious horse:

Prediction: Meryl Streep, “Doubt”

• Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin, “Milk”; Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”; Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”; Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”; Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road.”

It was a bad year to be a living actor at Oscar time.

Prediction: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”

• Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “Doubt”; Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”; Viola Davis, “Doubt”; Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler.”

For me, the Supporting Actress category is always a toss-up, as it usually includes a lot of wildcards (older actresses making a reappearance, plus a lot of new faces).  Shot in the dark.

Prediction: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”

• Director: David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”; Gus Van Sant, “Milk”; Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”; Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Gotta respect.

Prediction: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

• Animated Feature Film: “Bolt”; “Kung Fu Panda”; “WALL-E.”

Hey, isn’t it cute that they included other films in this category?  The pretense of competition always looks good for the folks at home.

Prediction: WALL-E, although Jack Black should win an honorary Oscar for his deadpan delivery of “Ska-doosh.” at the climax of Kung-Fu Panda.

• Sound Mixing: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “The Dark Knight,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “WALL-E,” “Wanted.”

HEY, which of these created a moving story with mostly bleeps and bloops?  Ben Burtt is an Oscar shoe-in…again.

Prediction: Ben Burtt, WALL-E

• Documentary Feature: “The Betrayal (Nerakhoon),” “Encounters at the End of the World,” “The Garden,” “Man on Wire,” “Trouble the Water.”

Hard pick, as I only saw one of these, but I’ll go with it, because I liked the choices they made in dramatizing the narrative.

Prediction: Man on Wire

• Film Editing: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “The Dark Knight,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Milk,” “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Film Editing is an award often reserved for the Important Action Picture, which completely downplays the difficulty and artistry involved in creating a montage masterpiece of action and theme.

Prediction: “The Dark Knight”, and well-deserved.

• Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “The Dark Knight,” “Iron Man.”

Tricky, as Benjamin Button has been nominated throughout.  That said, the detailed effects work in Iron Man was so integrated into the background that most people probably can’t point them all out.  Iron Man is a tour-de-force of VFX work.

Prediction: Iron Man

RECAP: You’ll notice I didn’t pick Benjamin Button for much.  WIth as many nominations as it had, that’s probably a mistake, but as I said, I haven’t seen enough of the films yet, so I’m shooting from the hip.  That, combined with more clear winners in most of those categories, leads me to suspect most of the Button crew will come away as “Academy Award Nominated Joe Schmoe” instead of “Oscar Winning Joe Shmoe”.

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